The 2026 FIFA World Cup is well underway, and it’s already proving that no two World Cups are ever the same.
While we often see tactical trends emerge and become associated with specific tournaments, these trends tend to change at subsequent World Cups.
Playing styles between and within tournaments are also not fixed. They change over time and are often adapted in response to match demands, opposition strategies, and tournament conditions. A team may even display different tactical behaviours within the same match, depending on the scoreline, time remaining, and stage of the competition.
The power of the first goal
In recent research that I conducted with Benjamin Stanway at St Mary’s University, we investigated the metrics and performance behaviours that differentiated winning and losing teams during the knockout stage of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Analysis showed that winning and losing teams often displayed similar traits at the start of a match, yet after the first goal was scored the tactical behaviour of both sides changed.
Winning teams recorded a higher number of counterattacks, while losing teams showed a higher number of positional plays.
When looking at this within the match context, it could be that the leading team has more opportunities to defend in a compact structure, attacking quickly when the opposition puts players forward. Whereas a losing team may need to spend longer spells in possession, using more structured attacking play to create scoring opportunities.
Our research also identified that winning teams had stronger metrics when it came to passing effectiveness, shooting effectiveness, and goalkeeping performance. In Qatar, we saw that this contributed to winning teams breaking the initial balance of matches, often in the first half.
It’s important to note that the results of our study are limited to the knockout-stage of Qatar 2022, so these conclusions do not necessarily apply across other editions of the World Cup. Going forward, it will be interesting to compare these findings to what emerges this summer and beyond.
Why World Cups are difficult to compare
A lot can happen in the four years between World Cups. It’s common for national team squads, coaching staff, and tactical approaches to change substantially.
The conditions and context of each tournament also differ greatly. For example, the 2022 World Cup was played in November and December right in the middle of the European domestic season. In contrast, this World Cup has returned to a June and July schedule, but includes more teams, more matches, greater travel demands, and changes to the qualification structure for the knockout stage.
Teams may also approach the group stage differently from the knockout stage, with previous research highlighting differences in playing styles at these stages of competition.
One possible explanation for this is that teams may try to manage effort across the tournament. Another is that coaches want to avoid revealing certain tactical approaches to opponents too early on.
Match structure and tactical behaviour
Rule and match-management changes can also influence tactical behaviour, with a long list of new rules introduced for this year’s World Cup.
The new, and already controversial, mandatory hydration breaks provide a good example. Although introduced for player welfare, they create additional stoppages that allow coaches to communicate with players. This can alter the rhythm of a match and provide opportunities for tactical adjustment.
In practical terms, these breaks may divide the match into shorter phases which can affect pressing, recovery, defensive organisation, and momentum.
What can we expect this tournament
It is difficult to predict what tactical trends will emerge throughout this summer and at future World Cups. For researchers, the World Cup provides a valuable stage for examining how performance behaviours change in response to the high demands and standards of the competition.
Some performance indicators including passing effectiveness, shooting effectiveness, goalkeeping performance, and the ability to create and convert chances, are likely to remain relevant. However, this will all depend on tournament conditions and match context.
The most successful teams are likely to be those that can adapt their tactical approach to the scoreline, opposition, competition stage, and physical demands of the tournament.
Football coaching programmes at St Mary's University
Roy Taylor is a graduate of St Mary's MSc , and a football coach at Chelsea Football Club. Roy's paper, which he produced alongside Benjamin Stanway (Lecturer in Performance Analysis at St Mary’s), is titled ‘Investigating metrics and performance behaviours that significantly differentiated winning and losing teams during the 2022 FIFA World Cup’, and was published in May 2026.
At St Mary's, we offer a range of coaching courses, from undergraduate sports coaching to specialist postgraduate programmes in performance football coaching. We work with a number of renowned industry partners, such as the League Managers Association (LMA), League Coaches Association (LCA) and Chelsea FC, giving our graduates genuine insight into the professional game and the practical skills employers are looking for.